ISW: Russia may move units from eastern Ukraine to Kursk region, but it will take time

The Russian military command may be moving more experienced and better-equipped advanced units from eastern or southern Ukraine to the Kursk region, but it will likely take additional time to redeploy. Other irregular Russian forces are already arriving on the ground, and the redeployment of the Northern Group of Russian troops may indicate Moscow's decision to sacrifice the offensive in Kharkiv region for the sake of defense in Kursk region.

This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for August 9. According to analysts, the Russian military command is likely to rely on existing units deployed near the border and nearby forces in the rear, most of which are manned by conscripts and irregulars, to respond to the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region.

These units are likely to be the first to face the attack, even if the Russian Armed Forces command decides to deploy additional, more experienced units from other areas of the front, the report says.

At the same time, other irregular Russian forces, including those deployed in other areas of the front line, are also arriving in the Kursk region.

These are elements of the "DPR" forces, such as the "Wild Division of Donbas" formation and the "Pyatnashka" brigade , which have already arrived in Kursk region after offensive operations in Donetsk region.

In addition, the Wagner PMC's Council of Commanders issued a statement on August 9 declaring its readiness to deploy to the Kursk region's border area "at a moment's notice," and Russian "milbloggers" claimed that some former Wagner members have already begun arriving in Kursk region.

The propagandists also claimed that elements of the Chechen special forces "Akhmat" are operating throughout the Kursk region, in particular in the village of Velyke Soldatskoye, and elements of the Chechen detachment "Aida" are operating near the town of Sudzha.

It is reported that units of the Russian Special Operations Forces are also operating in the border areas of the Kursk region, in particular near Sudzha.

The commander of the Chechen special forces "Akhmat" Apti Alaudinov is reportedly in the Kursk region to command Chechen forces, and on August 9 he stated that the Russian military has enough forces and resources to stop the Ukrainian offensive, although it is unclear whether the Russian military command intends to deploy additional, more capable and better equipped forces to the border area.

It is possible that the Russian military command is currently moving more experienced and better-equipped advanced units from eastern or southern Ukraine to the Kursk region, but it will likely take additional time to redeploy, ISW notes.

On August 9, one of the Russian "milbloggers" stated that elements of the 44th Army Corps of the Northern Military Group (Leningrad Military District) were operating near the city of Rylsk, Kursk region, but suggested that the Russian command could be moving elements that the Northern Military Group had accumulated for its offensive in northern Kharkiv region to respond to the Ukrainian operation in Kursk region.

If true, this claim by the "milblogger" suggests that the Russian military command assesses Ukraine's operation as more significant, analysts say.

"The significant redeployment of elements of the Northern Group of Forces to the Kursk region suggests that the Russian military command has determined that disruption of the offensive in the north of Kharkiv region is a necessary sacrifice to properly respond to the Ukrainian invasion, while avoiding redeployment from more priority frontline areas," the report says.

According to ISW analysts, larger-scale redeployments of Russian troops from the frontline are likely to be slower, and more capable forward units may begin arriving in Kursk region in the coming days.

At the same time, according to ISW, the Russian command may resist operational pressure to redeploy forces from other operational areas to prevent the Ukrainian invasion from disrupting Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.

As OBOZ.UA reported, earlier there was information about the destruction of another column of the Russian army in the Kursk region, as well as a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.

On the night of August 10, a "counterterrorism operation" was introduced in Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions in connection with the fighting in the Kursk region.

According to analysts, the invasion of the Kursk region showed the weakness of Russian defense in the border area. At the same time, the attack became the most serious challenge for Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin since the so-called "mutiny" of the Wagner PMC in June 2023. Regaining Russian control over the Kursk region may take a long time, experts say.

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