Ukrainian troops advance in Kursk region, DPRK soldiers suffer heavy losses – ISW

On January 16, Ukraine's defense forces advanced on their main advance in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation amid fighting in the area. Russian troops are suffering losses in clashes on their territory, including many among the DPRK forces fighting on their side.

Analysts estimate that the entire North Korean contingent of about 12,000 soldiers deployed to Kursk is at risk of being killed or wounded by mid-April 2025. The situation was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kursk Region

According to geolocation footage published on January 15, Ukrainian forces recently advanced from the international border to the central part of the village of Uspenivka (south of Koreneve and just beyond the Russian-Ukrainian border).

A Russian militarist claimed that Russian forces had advanced north and northeast of Makhnovka (south of Sudzha), but ISW has not found corroboration of this claim. Another Russian source acknowledged that the Ukrainian Armed Forces counterattacked Russian positions near Makhnovka.

It is reported that units of the Russian "Smuglyanka" detachment, the 155th Marine Brigade (Russian Pacific Fleet), and the "Press" group of the Chechen special forces "Akhmat" are currently operating in Kursk region. In addition, units of the 83rd Airborne Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces were spotted in the Mykolaiv-Daryino area (northwest of Sudzha); UAV operators of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division) are operating in the area of Cherkaske Porichne (north of Sudzha); UAV operators of the 106th Airborne Division – in the area of Uspenivka; drone operators from the "Irish" and "Zorya" detachments, as well as the "Dozor" reconnaissance detachment, are operating near Mala Loknia (north of Sudzha).

Losses of DPRK Forces in the Ranks of the Russian Army

As of early January 2025, 3,800 North Korean soldiers were killed or wounded in the Kursk region. Before that, in November 2024, it was reported that North Korean forces were involved in "small-scale" clashes in the Kursk region. However, on December 6, Russian bloggers (contrary to the statements of the Kremlin's mouthpieces on RosTv about the absence of North Koreans in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces) admitted that they were actually involved in more significant hostilities.

Thus, analysts have calculated that the North Koreans have suffered approximately 92 casualties per day since they began participating in major hostilities in the Kursk region in early December 2024. In total, the DPRK has deployed about 12,000 of its military personnel there.

"This entire contingent in the Kursk region could be killed or wounded in about 12 weeks (around mid-April 2025) if North Korean forces continue to suffer the same high casualty rates in the future," ISW estimated.

On January 13, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said that 300 North Koreans had been killed and 2,700 wounded in fighting in the Kursk region of Russia. Analysts believe that the DPRK forces will continue to suffer a higher ratio of wounded to killed in action – as is typical in war – and it is unclear if and when the wounded North Korean soldiers will return to battle.

As reported by OBOZ.UA, The New York Times, quoting analysts, noted that for Russia, the battle for the Kursk region has become similar to the storming of the Ukrainian cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. The Russian army continues to try to drive the Ukrainian army out of this territory, uses a large amount of manpower in its offensives, and, as a result, suffers huge losses.

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