ISW: Russia's seizure of the entire Donetsk region may involve ground operations in Dnipropetrovsk region

Russian commanders are likely planning to advance to the southeastern part of Dnipropetrovsk oblast to support the Kremlin's goal of capturing the entire Donetsk oblast. This could include operations in the southern and eastern parts of Dnipropetrovsk region to cut off Ukrainian lines of communication and encircle positions in Donetsk region.

Russian troops, already close to the border of Dnipropetrovsk region, may move north to engage Ukrainian forces in southwestern Donetsk. This is according to a report by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

If successful, this could lead to the ousting of Ukrainian forces from the areas southwest of Pokrovsk, west of Kurakhove, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka. To do so, the Russians would have to cover or bypass Velyka Novosilka and block the T0518 road. The enemy can use water obstacles to further advance, for example, by moving from Rivne to Velykomykhailivka (Dnipropetrovs'k) along the Vorona River. If they succeed in capturing Velyka Novosilka, the offensive could continue to Novopavlivka across the Mokri Yaly River.

This offensive is not likely to be a direct attack on the Dnipro region in the short term, but the Kremlin is seeking to capture significant territory south of the Dnipro. In particular, Z-channels have repeatedly called on the Kremlin to launch an offensive in southeastern Dnipro region to put pressure on the Ukrainian army in the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove area.

Russia's plans to seize Donetsk region through the occupation of part of Dnipro region demonstrate the Kremlin's desire to capitulate Ukraine and destroy its sovereignty.

The documents of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which appeared online on November 20, indicate the intention to divide Ukraine into three parts: full annexation of the occupied territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea, creation of a pro-Russian puppet state in Kyiv under Russian military occupation, and division of the western territories among neighbors.

Dnipropetrovsk oblast has not been annexed by the Kremlin, but the limited advance of Russian troops may become the basis for future operations to occupy this oblast and other regions.

Units from Russia's Central, Eastern, and Southern Military Districts are conducting simultaneous offensives in Donetsk Oblast, having achieved some tactical progress. Perhaps the Russian command is learning from its mistakes after three years of war, although the effectiveness of this learning is not yet clear. The offensive in the Pokrovske direction and north of the Kurakhivske reservoir has involved large forces, including the OMU, the 51st Army, and other units. These coordinated actions differ from previous operations when Russian forces operated separately in different areas. However, even with increased mutual support, operations in the Donetsk region have not yielded significant results, and problems with command and interoperability of forces remain an obstacle to progress.

Earlier, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine reported that Russia's main task for the fall and winter period has not changed: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The aggressor's strategic goal - full control over Ukraine - also remains unchanged.

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