Four regions will come under attack: Russia may be preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, with forecasts on the timeline - FT
In the summer of 2024, the Russian army may launch a new offensive in Ukraine, aiming to fully seize the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Additionally, Ukrainian military forces do not rule out the possibility of a second attempt by the occupiers to capture Kharkiv or even Kyiv.
This information was reported by the British newspaper Financial Times, citing Ukrainian defenders. According to U.S. intelligence, investigated by journalists in December, Russian President Vladimir Putin's ultimate goal in Ukraine remains unchanged: the conquest of the country and the subjugation of its people.
This explains why the Russian Federation continues offensive operations in the east in various directions, especially around Avdiivka, as well as in the direction of Lyman and Kupyansk, as mentioned in the document.
Simultaneously, a Western official mentioned that the prospects for an operational breakthrough on both sides in 2024 are slim.
The article also notes that Ukraine is changing its tactics and transitioning to "active defense" following the unsuccessful summer counteroffensive. According to a Western official, this strategy involves not only holding defensive lines but also identifying weaknesses in the enemy, coupled with long-range air strikes. This approach will allow Ukraine to bolster its forces this year and prepare for 2025, where a counteroffensive would have better chances.
The shift to such a strategy is supported by Ukraine's strongest allies, as reported by the Financial Times.
In December, the Estonian Ministry of Defense published a report stating that Ukraine should adopt a "strategic defense" to buy time for itself and its partners to create an industrial base, train reserves, and enhance personnel and artillery production capacity to resume an offensive campaign in 2025.
The United States also advocates for this approach: a strategy of holding territories while simultaneously identifying weaknesses in the enemy's defense to exploit them when opportunities arise.