AFU expands tactical success, while the Russians suffer from long-range strikes in rear areas: ISW on the situation in Kursk region

Ukrainian defense forces boast tactical gains amid intense offensive operations in the Kursk region over the past two days. Meanwhile, the Russian troops tried to use Ukrainian maneuvers northeast of Sudzha to initiate attacks in other parts of the area, and also reported long-range strikes in the rear ones.

This is stated by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a report. It expects the Ukrainian Armed Forces to continue to strike Russian rear areas in Kursk region as part of efforts to useuse integrated strike capabilities to support ground operations.

Citing geolocation footage from January 5 and 6, analysts point out that Ukrainian forces have advanced northeast of Sudzha: in the southern part of the village of Berdin, and in the central part of Russkoye Porechnoye and Novosotnitsky.

The Russian Ministry of Defense and its milbloggers claimed that Russian troops had repelled a Ukrainian platoon-sized mechanized attack in the Berdin area, and that is units, including the Rosgvardia's "Talib" Group, had allegedly repelled Ukrainian assaults in the Novosotnitsky area.

Russian military bloggers, taking to social media, tried to convince their compatriots that units of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade, the 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade, and Kadyrov's Akhmat special forces had "cleared" the areas in question. One blogger suggested that the Ukrainian attacks in the Kursk region are "enhanced reconnaissance in force operations" that could be a misleading maneuver for future actions.

"Increased Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast may be the beginning stages of a concerted Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere in the theater, though ISW is unprepared to offer any specific forecast," ISW analysts emphasized.

It is noted that the Russian Armed Forces have been advancing west of Malaya Loknya (northwest of Sudzha) these days. Although pro-war bloggers claimed to have recaptured Leonidovo, as well as advances near Russkoye Porechnoye, Makhnovka, and Dmitryukov, ISW has not found any confirmation of this.

According to analysts, the Russian military command has redeployed drone units of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (called the "Caspian Flotilla" in the Russian Defense Ministry) from the western part of Zaporizhzhia region to Kursk region.

"Ukrainian forces may be continuing to conduct long-range strikes against Russian rear areas in Kursk Oblast as part of efforts to use integrated strike capabilities to support ground operations," ISW said.

Thus, on January 5, explosions were heard near the Russian 3754th Central Aviation Technical Base (military unit 13830) in Kursk. Also these days, Russian bloggers complained about several missile attacks on the front and rear positions of the Russian army in the Kursk region. The operational headquarters of the region allegedly claimed to have destroyed two Ukrainian missiles.

"ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian forces may be attempting to integrate longer-range precision strike capabilities and electronic warfare (EW) systems activity to support ground operations," ISW reminded.

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