Scientists have named 10 European cities where most people will die from climate change by 2099

An alarming new study has predicted how many people in Europe will die from climate change by the end of the century. Scientists at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine predict that a total of 5.8 million Europeans will die from excessive heat between 2015 and 2099.

The researchers named 10 European cities where the mortality rate will be the highest. However, experts note that their analysis does not include the effects of catastrophic weather events caused by climate change, such as forest fires and tropical storms so that the final death toll will be even higher, DailyMail writes.

For the new study, Dr. Pierre Masselot and colleagues analyzed temperature and mortality data to predict future temperature-related deaths in 854 European cities between 2015 and 2099.

For each city, the researchers calculated a "net" figure – the number of deaths caused by heat minus the number of deaths "saved" from the cold. After all, the team of scientists recognizes that rising temperatures will reduce some deaths from cold.

Under a dismal scenario where there are high greenhouse gas emissions (where CO2 emissions double by 2100) and no adaptation to heat, there will be a total of 5,825,746 heat-related deaths in Europe, the scientists calculated.

However, 3,480,336 deaths due to cold will be avoided, giving a total "net" mortality rate in Europe of 2,345,410 people by 2099.

Researchers say that the most vulnerable areas of Europe to the heat are the southern regions, namely the Mediterranean and the Balkans.

The European city with the highest number of heat-related deaths by the end of the century will be Barcelona, Spain – 246,082 people. This will be followed by Italy's Rome (147,738) and Naples (147,248), followed by Spain's Madrid (129,716) and Italy's Milan (110,131).

Athens (Greece) with 87,523, Valencia (Spain) with 67,519, Marseille (France) with 51,306, Bucharest (Romania) with 47,468, and Genoa (Italy) with 36,338 round out the worrying top ten.

In contrast, most cities in the British Isles and Scandinavian countries, such as London, Copenhagen, and Stockholm, will see a "net decrease" in mortality, meaning more people will be "saved" from the cold than will die from the heat.

For example, in London, 75,864 people will die from the heat, but 103,320 will be saved from the cold – a total net decrease of -27,455. "The UK tends to have a high vulnerability to cold and also a lower exposure to heat," said Dr. Pierre Masselot.

Overall, the study shows that even if cold-related deaths are taken into account, 2.3 million Europeans will die due to heat by 2099.

The study focuses on average daily temperatures and does not take into account specific weather elements. Therefore, the total number of deaths from climate change in Europe is likely to be higher if events such as climate-induced floods and forest fires are included, experts say.

"Our findings emphasize the urgent need to actively combat climate change and adapt to rising heat," summarized Dr. Pierre Masselot, lead author of the study.

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