Russian elites do not yet risk overthrowing Putin's regime, but discontent is growing - Galliamov
Russian elites are not yet risking the overthrow of Russian President Volodymyr Putin, but the conflict in the leadership of the aggressor country is growing. At some point, it will be the conflict in the elites that will destroy the Kremlin regime.
This opinion was expressed by Abbas Galliamov, a Russian political scientist and Putin's speechwriter in 2008-2010, in an op-ed for the Russian publication "Can We Explain". "Russian elites are dissatisfied with Putin, but they are not trying to overthrow him. They have a lot to lose, and they don't want to take any risks. And yet, at some point, it will be the conflict within the elites that will destroy the regime. The establishment will kill each other, arguing about which way to go to retain power," he believes.
According to the expert, contradictions in the Russian elites are already growing, in particular, the conflict between "hawks" and "technocrats" is getting worse.
"The "hawks," led by Russian Security Council Secretary Mykola Patrushev and Rosneft President Ihor Sechin, believe that since Moscow has already gotten involved in the war, "it is necessary to continue to go out on a limb - to cancel elections, impose martial law, start mass mobilization and mass repression, nationalize the economy and put it on a war footing," Abbas Galliamov writes.
The other camp, the "technocrats," are not against the war itself, but against its escalation. In their opinion, mass mobilization should be avoided, the economy should remain market-based, repression should be minimal, the conflict with the West should be minimized, and Ukraine should be "exhausted, forcing it to start negotiations."
The political analyst also included Viktor Zolotov, the commander-in-chief of the Russian National Guard, the Rotenberg clan, and First Deputy Prime Minister Andrii Bilousov among the hawks.
The "technocrats" include the Kovalchuk clan , Rostec CEO Serhii Chemezov, Putin's deputy chief of staff Sergii Kiriienko, Russian Prime Minister Mikhailo Mishustin, Moscow Mayor Serhii Sobianin, and Tula Region Governor Alexii Diumin.
"As the situation deteriorates, the degree of confrontation will increase," Abbas Galyamov predicts.
In his opinion, "the players will stop restraining themselves and go all-in."
"Someone will start arresting competitors, someone will launch a large-scale criticism of rivals in parliament and the media, someone will use the courts, and someone will decide to involve the street," the political analyst believes.
He notes that "there are many rifts in the Russian elites" and Putin is "the only glue" that holds them together. And when the glue becomes scarce or loses its quality, the structure begins to fall apart.
"The only thing that unites them all is Putin. More precisely, not Putin himself, but the belief that Putin knows everything, foresees everything, and always wins. Since this confidence is now being seriously eroded, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Russian elites to maintain unity," Abbas Galyamov explained.
As reported by OBOZ.UA:
- Abbas Gallamov said earlier that Putin invented a "special operation " to raise his rating. In recent years before the war, there was no unconditional support for the government in Russia, and opposition has become mainstream.
- Oleksii Danylov, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said that the collapse of Russia is inevitable. The West should prepare for this, as Russia has nuclear potential.