World's population will decline sharply: scientists say when the tipping point will come

Not long ago, there were alarming statements about the problem of global overpopulation. Indeed, the population is expected to reach more than 8 billion people in 2023, but the growth trend will not last long. Scientists have predicted that by 2100, less than 6 billion people will live on Earth.

Recent research commissioned by the Club of Rome and published in Live Science shows that in the coming decades, i.e. by 2050, the population growth trend will decline. That is, at the peak period, humanity will reach a critical point of 8.6 billion people, after which the world's population will decline by as much as 2 billion by the end of the century. And the reason is, in particular, global warming. In addition, the planet is facing  mass extinction - according to the latest forecasts, about 27% of living beings will die out.

Positive scientists point out that a sharp decline in population will significantly reduce environmental problems. But no one sees population decline as an exceptionally favourable trend. It will cause humanity to age. New generations will bear the burden of financing healthcare and pensions, as the proportion of people of working age will decrease significantly.

Per Espen Stoknes, Director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at the Norwegian Business School and Earth4All project manager, said that the birth rate will start to fall, in part due to a jump in economic development in low-income countries.

It should be noted that the latest study contradicts UN forecasts. In 2022, the UN released an estimate that the world is facing a "population explosion": the population will grow to almost 10 billion by 2050, and by 2100 it will be more than 10.4 billion.

The Earth4All model is more complex and includes variables related to the environment and the economy. These include the level of energy generation, inequality, food quality and production, income levels, and the effects of global warming.

Earth4All has created two development models. Under one, more realistic scenario, governments continue on the path of inaction on environmental issues, with the population growing to 9 billion by 2050 and falling to 7.3 billion in 2100. If governments start investing in the environment, education, and green energy, the population will reach 8.5 billion by mid-century and 6 billion by 2100.

"The main problem of humanity is the excessive consumption of carbon and the biosphere, not the number of people," said Jørgen Randers, a scientist at the Norwegian Business School and a member of Earth4All, in a statement.

Previously OBOZREVATEL told, what a deadly disease can spread around the world because of global warming.

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