Ukrainian Armed Forces counter-offensive may give Ukraine a chance to end the war on favourable terms - Foreign Affairs

During the upcoming counter-offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine could recapture a significant part of the territories captured by Russia after February 24, 2022. This, in turn, will enable Ukraine to end the war on favourable terms.

At the same time, despite its numerical superiority in weapons and personnel, Putin's army is unlikely to be able to withstand highly motivated and well-trained Ukrainian soldiers. Rajan Menon, a research fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and director of strategic programmes at Defence Priorities, said this in Foreign Affairs.

According to him, the ongoing mobilisation in the Russian aggressor country has almost no effect on the combat readiness of Putin's army. The Russians drafted are poorly trained, as many officers assigned to train personnel were sent to the front to man the units that suffered losses. At the same time, it is not enough to increase the number of occupiers - they need to be armed and issued with uniforms. Russia's problems with this are getting worse, and more and more Russians at the front are complaining about poor equipment and lack of ammunition.

For their part, more and more Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in the West under the guidance of highly qualified instructors, and Ukraine's allies continue to supply armoured vehicles and other weapons ahead of the expected counter-offensive. Therefore, the analyst believes that much depends on the success of Ukraine's upcoming counter-offensive.

Menon believes that Ukraine's allies will be watching closely to assess whether the victory Kyiv seeks is feasible. The researcher noted that Ukrainian military leaders have proved to be cunning, agile and resourceful, while the Russian command has not demonstrated any creativity. Moreover, the cumulative effect of the incoming Western weapons will increase the firepower at the disposal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in several ways.

The author believes that Ukraine's future offensive could focus on pushing south into the Russian-held part of Zaporizhzhia region to cut off Russia's land corridor to Crimea. To this end, Ukraine will intensify its attacks on Russian bases and supply depots, as well as on railway supply routes. According to him, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces reach Berdiansk or Mariupol, they will cut off Russian forces in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, thereby increasing their vulnerability to encirclement and complicating the supply and defence of Crimea. Moreover, the bridge across the Kerch Strait could be within range of Ukrainian weapons.

According to the researcher, during a counter-offensive, Ukrainian troops would be able to recapture the seized territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, but Crimea and Donbas, which have been seized by Russians since 2014, may remain under the control of the aggressor. The analyst notes that even such a scenario would mean a significant victory for Ukraine, as Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin's plans to install a pro-Russian government in Kyiv and take over the country would fail.

The author notes that the de-occupation of the territories captured after a full-scale Russian invasion would save Ukraine from further death and destruction, allow it to begin the task of post-war reconstruction, and allow millions of refugees and internally displaced persons to return home.

As a reminder, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin said that Ukraine has every opportunity to succeed in a counter-offensive. He noted that many Ukrainian soldiers were trained abroad by instructors from allied countries.

Earlier, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said that a large-scale counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Defence Forces against the Russian occupation army could begin in the summer of 2023. The greatest pressure on the state in this regard comes from within Ukrainian society.

As OBOZREVATEL previously reported, former advisor to the head of the Presidential Office Oleksiy Arestovych spoke about the upcoming offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He said that our defenders are 90% ready for a counter-offensive.

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