Everything was carefully planned: ISW explained why Russia staged a drone attack on the Kremlin
The terrorist Russian state staged a staged drone attack on the Kremlin in order to show war to its domestic audience as something existential. The planned provocation could also be preparation for a broader mobilization in the Russian Federation.
Experts point out that against the background of a significant strengthening of air defenses in the capital of the aggressor country, the explosion of UAVs directly over the Kremlin looks implausible. This is said in an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.
According to analysts, Russia orchestrated this attack in an attempt to convey the war to a Russian domestic audience and create the conditions for broader mobilization. Several indications point to the fact that the provocation was carried out inside the Russian Federation and was purposefully orchestrated.
ISW recalled that Russian authorities have recently taken steps to strengthen domestic air defense capabilities, including in Moscow itself, so it is highly unlikely that two drones could have penetrated several air defense echelons and exploded directly over the Kremlin.
The Kremlin's immediate and coordinated response to the incident indicates that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its perceived political consequences outweighed the reaction of the aggressor country's leadership. The Kremlin immediately accused Ukraine of carrying out the attack, and official Russian responses quickly formed around this accusation. However, ISW noted that if the drone attack had not been orchestrated inside Russia, it would have been a surprise development.
The quick and consistent narrative of the official Russian version suggests that Russia staged the UAV incident in the Kremlin in the vicinity of May 9 to present the war to its domestic audience as something existential. Analysts speculate that the Kremlin may use this newsworthiness to justify either the cancellation or further restriction of the May 9 celebrations.
In addition, analysts noted that the Kremlin may be planning to conduct other operations under a foreign flag and increase disinformation in the run-up to the Ukrainian counteroffensive in order to increase domestic support for the war.
As reported by OBOZREVATEL:
- Around 3 a.m. on May 3, the sounds of explosions were heard in Moscow near the Kremlin. Eyewitnesses reported seeing sparks in the sky. A video showing smoke rising above Putin's residence was posted online.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin's press service said that Ukraine had tried to strike the Kremlin during the night in order to assassinate the dictator. Allegedly, two drones were aimed at the building.
- President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine did not attack the territory of the Russian aggressor country, nor did it attempt to assassinate Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. But it is in the interests of the Kremlin head to blame Kyiv for this.
- The Russian State Duma, meanwhile, reacted violently to the nighttime drone attack on the Kremlin. The deputies saw in this "bavovna" a "real reason for war" and started threatening Ukraine and Zelensky.
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