What will happen to the dollar rate in Ukraine until the end of the year: the banker announced two scenarios

The situation with the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine in the second half of 2023 can develop according to two scenarios - stabilization and rational. The first and most likely one envisages preservation of the current currency policy with the official exchange rate not exceeding UAH 36.6. The second scenario involves a 14-15% devaluation of the hryvnia.

This was stated by analyst of Raiffeisen Bank Alexander Pecheritsyn, writes"Focus". According to him, currently the situation is moving towards the stabilization scenario.

1. Stabilization scenario

"This is not to do anything with the exchange rate. To leave the system that is in balance, so as not to create additional negative social, devaluation signals," Pecherytsyn explained.

According to him, the current model of the currency market foresees that Ukraine receives much more foreign currency, than it leaves the country. In addition, the reserves of the National Bank are replenished, which helps to maintain stability of the hryvnia.

According to the banker, this "status quo" can be maintained until the end of the hostilities. Then the dollar rate will remain at 36.56 hryvnias per dollar.

2. Rational scenario

This option envisages that the hryvnia will devalue little by little in spite of the war. A controlled depreciation of the national currency will reduce imbalances in the balance of payments and foreign trade, Pecherytsyn believes.

In case of such a scenario, the hryvnia may devalue by 14-15% per year. Then the dollar will trade at UAH 41.6.

At that the biggest threat to the currency market in Ukraine may be a stoppage of the grain corridor in the Black Sea. However, even this will not have catastrophic results for the Ukrainian currency, the expert believes.

"The suspension of the grain corridor for a few months and the possibility to export products by the available ways that will remain are not the volumes that can destroy the balance of the currency market. The inflow of foreign currency from foreign creditors is greater, and it overlaps this," said the banker.

As reported by OBOZREVATEL, according to the executive director of the "Economic Discussion Club" Oleg Pendzin, there will be no sharp changes of the dollar in summer. The hryvnia will remain stable at least until September, and there are no prerequisites for the devaluation of the national currency.

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