European Commission has presented an economic forecast for Ukraine for the first time: what are the indicators

The Ukrainian economy will manage to avoid a fall in 2023
The Ukrainian economy will manage to avoid a fall in 2023

For the first time, the European Commission (EC) has announced an economic forecast for Ukraine as an EU candidate country. Thus, the EC expects Ukraine's GDP to grow even in 2023, albeit slightly.

The statement was made by European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni, the press service of the European Commission reports. According to Gentiloni, Ukraine has demonstrated "tremendous resilience" in its economy.

Despite a 29% drop in 2022, the Ukrainian economy may grow by 0.6% in 2023. And in 2024, the recovery will accelerate to 4% GDP growth, according to the European Commission.

However, it is noted that the forecast is subject to change. "It is subject to all the caveats that can be expected in a wartime situation," Gentiloni said.

As reported by OBOZREVATEL, the National Bank of Ukraine has recently revised its economic forecast upwards. Earlier, it was expected that GDP would grow by only 0.3% in 2023, but now it is expected to increase by 2%.

However, the key risk to this forecast remains the longer duration and intensity of a full-scale war. The NBU currently assumes that security risks will decline by early 2024.

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