Why the forecast on the liberation of Crimea did not come true: Podolyak explained the difficulty

Ukraine has been waiting for weapons from Western partners for a long time

The President's Office explained why the forecast for the liberation of the temporarily occupied Crimea did not come true. There are a number of reasons for this, including money and weapons.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, told Channel 24. He explained that the forecast was made based on a simple mathematical analysis.

"Let's be honest. When we talk about the timing of the liberation, today some may say, 'You said that we would enter Crimea in the summer of 2023.' But what was the basis for this? It was based on a mathematical analysis: how many and what kind of weapons are needed; how much and when these weapons will be delivered; how much, when and how sanctions against Russia will work; how much and how Russia will spend money," he said.

The advisor to the head of the Presidential Administration clarified that the occupiers spend a lot of money on the war, and Russia has also learned to circumvent some sanctions.

Ukraine has been waiting for weapons from its Western partners for a long time.

"If we have agreed on certain tools of warfare, we should have these tools in 7 to 10 days, as long as it takes for logistics, and not in 90 to 120 days," Podolyak emphasized.

According to him, if the transfer of weapons is delayed for a long time, the Russians will find out what and how much Ukraine will have. Because of this, the occupiers began to prepare for strategic defense.

In conclusion, Podolyak emphasized that the timing of the liberation of a territory depends solely on the resources and weapons of both Ukraine and Russia. One way or another, he assured that Crimea would be de-occupied, and the scenario without liberation of the peninsula was not even considered.

"But let's get back to the main point. Do we have an ending 'not to enter Crimea' that would clearly say that Ukraine will have a historical perspective? Is there at least one outcome where we left Russia with a share of the occupied territories? There have been no relevant political and governance changes in Russia. Russia continues to spend 14.6 trillion rubles directly on the war. These are only direct costs, and there are also indirect costs. Do we have any chance of surviving in the historical context for 10 or 15 years?" said the adviser to the Presidential Administration.

Earlier, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, explained why it is important for the Armed Forces to liberate Crimea. In his opinion, Ukraine will not be safe and will not be able to restore its economy until the temporarily occupied Crimea is liberated, including the blocking of shipping in the Black Sea and food exports from Ukrainian ports by the aggressor state.

As OBOZ.UA previously reported, anti-Russian sentiment is growing in the temporarily occupied Crimea, and it is happening sharply. The Moscow-appointed governor of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, is making excuses to the Kremlin, saying that the reason is a significant increase in prices for basic goods and medicines due to Western sanctions.

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