Climate catastrophe could happen at any time in the next 6000 years: scientists stun with forecast

Scientists suggest that a climate catastrophe could occur at any time within the next 6,000 years. According to experts, it is almost impossible to predict the exact time of turning points in nature.

The Day After Tomorrow disaster movie may become a reality. After all, scientists record alarming signs of climate change almost every day, writes DailyMail.

A team from the Technical University of Munich and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research provided the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as an example. This system circulates water from north to south and back again in a long cycle in the Atlantic Ocean, carrying warm currents from the tropics to the north.

Scientists suggest that the AMOC will weaken during the 21st century due to increasing greenhouse gases and melting ice. If the system breaks down, the northern hemisphere will become colder, leading to a sharp drop in temperatures in Europe. Also, wet seasons in the Amazon rainforest will be replaced by dry seasons, and sea levels will rise even faster in coastal cities.

Previous predictions based on historical data suggested that collapse could occur between 2025 and 2095. However, the new study found that the uncertainties are so great that these predictions are not reliable.

According to the researchers, using different data sets and analysis, the tipping point for the AMOC ranged from 2050 to 8065. That is, an error of 6000 years is not particularly useful for accurate predictions.

The experts also said that the timing of other climate tipping points, such as the melting of the polar ice sheets or the disappearance of tropical forests, is also highly uncertain. This is because so much is still unknown about the underlying physical mechanisms of climate change. There is a lack of direct observations of the climate system and incomplete historical data.

"Our study is both a wake-up call and a warning. There are things we still cannot predict, and we need to invest in better data and a deeper understanding of the systems involved. The stakes are too high to rely on shaky predictions," said lead author Maya Ben-Yami.

The experts also emphasized that statistical methods are still very good at telling us which parts of the climate have become more unstable. "We still need to do everything we can to reduce our impact on the climate, primarily by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Even if we cannot predict the time of the tipping point, the probability of tipping key components of the earth system still increases with every tenth of a degree of warming," concluded climate change study co-author Niklas Boers.

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