ISW assessed how significant losses of armored vehicles by Russia will affect the situation at the front

Over the past year, the losses of Russian armored vehicles in the war against Ukraine have increased, especially among units and formations of the Russian Armed Forces that have been fighting on the front line for most of 2024. If this continues, the lack of tanks and armored personnel carriers may affect the pace of the occupiers' advance in certain areas of the front line.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They analyzed data from social media sources that monitor the situation at Russian military depots using satellite images.

Thus, on December 22, an updated estimate was published, according to which the Russian troops currently have 47% of pre-war reserves of tanks, 52% of infantry fighting vehicles, and 45% of armored personnel carriers in storage.

"The data indicate that the Russian army has already used up all of its pre-war T-90 tanks and most of its T-80s, but still has most of its old T-72, T-64/62, and T-54/55 tanks in storage," the analysts write.

The authors of the data noted that Russian troops would not be able to put these old tanks into combat, as they were likely deteriorated by weather and time. The ISW believes that even if this is true, the Russians can still use this equipment for spare parts to repair new tanks used in the fighting against Ukraine. Therefore, it is difficult to determine the real situation based on satellite images alone, given the fact that the Russian army may have additional armored vehicles and tanks in covered storage facilities that are not visible on such images.

Experts also suggest that restrictions on armored vehicles among Russian forces vary across sectors of the front line. The occupiers conducted an intensified company-sized mechanized attack in the direction of Kupiansk on October 19, and two more battalion-sized attacks in the Siverskyi sector on November 2 and December 14-15.

It is noted that Russian units operating in both of these areas (frontline areas with a relatively low rate of Russian offensive operations over the past few months) may now have more armored vehicles, as they have not conducted armored attacks and have not suffered armored losses with the same intensity as the occupiers in the Pokrovske and Kurakhove directions.

"However, the Russian military may have difficulties re-equipping their forward units and formations, as their command does not want to withdraw units for rest and recuperation and risk further slowing down the Russian advance in priority sectors of the front line," ISW assessed.

Only verified information is available on our Telegram channel OBOZ.UA and Viber. Do not fall for fakes!