Confrontation of nerves: Lakiichuk explains how the Kursk operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine affects the war in Donbas

Pavlo Lakiichuk, Head of Security Programs at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", believes that the occupiers' offensive in the Donetsk sector and the Kursk operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Russia are a confrontation of nerves. This situation is a game of raising the stakes. Who will be the first to make a political decision to change the strategy.

The expert shared this opinion in a commentary for OBOZ.UA. He believes that a Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region is out of the question in the short term.

"They are moving reserves, but to be honest, I hoped there would be more of them. I think that our military command also hoped that they would withdraw most of their forces from the areas of main attacks. That is, from the east, from Pokrovsk, from Toretsk, from Chasovyi Yar, we have not seen this yet. This indicates that the priority of the offensive on Pokrovsk and Donetsk region is higher than the defense or liberation of Kursk region, Russia itself," said Lakiichuk.

He suggested that in the long run, the Russians can expect to capture Pokrovsk first, and then deal with Kursk. Much will depend on the sequence of Russian actions.

"If the enemy withdraws its reserves from the areas of its main attacks, sends them to Kursk to launch a counteroffensive or stop the advance of Ukrainian troops, this will be one deployment of forces on the battlefield and in the theater as a whole. This will weaken the enemy, and we will be able to hold them with fewer forces, to stop this creeping plague," the expert explained.

"If this sequence continues, the Russians will advance further in the Donetsk direction without changing their plans, and we will advance in the Kursk direction. Someone characterized it as "who has the stronger nerves" – when two cars, one towards the other, are rushing towards each other, i.e. a game of raising the stakes. Who will have the first political decision to change the strategy," noted Lakiichuk.

"Either we stop the Kursk offensive, withdraw, and throw our forces to Donetsk. Or the Russians stop the offensive, throw their reserves at Kursk to push our troops out," the expert clarified.

As reported by OBOZ.UA:

– The ISW noted that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region is forcing Russia to redeploy forces from the Ukrainian front. The next stages of hostilities on the territory of the Russian Federation are likely to require the Kremlin to deploy additional forces (approximately 20 thousand) and means in the area, which is beneficial for Ukraine.

– Former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United Kingdom, former Foreign Minister of Ukraine Vadym Prystaiko believes that Ukraine's position has strengthened as a result of the successful military operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia. The image of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has been undermined.

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