Coming Months Will Be Crucial: Biden Administration Hints at Likely Scenario for Ukraine – NYT

Russian troops launch new offensive near Kharkiv. Source: Photo: Nicole Tung for The New York Times

After several months of slow advancement of the Russian army on the battlefield and a significant delay in the US military aid to Ukraine, Joe Biden's administration is increasingly concerned that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is gaining enough power to change the trajectory of the war in his favor. The White House believes that the next few months could be decisive in the war.

The situation at the front may provoke a scenario where at some point both sides may start negotiating a ceasefire and truce according to the "Korean scenario". The New York Times reports this with reference to Western officials who commented on the situation on condition of anonymity.

"There is a growing realization in the Biden administration that the next few months could be crucial, as at some point the two sides could finally move to a negotiated ceasefire, a truce like the one that ended active hostilities in Korea in 1953 – or simply a frozen conflict," the newspaper notes.

Russian troops have launched a new offensive near Kharkiv. Some experts warn that the real strategic goal of the Russian Federation is to force the Ukrainian defense forces to pull back their already exhausted troops to defend the Kharkiv region, weakening the front line elsewhere. This could create an opportunity for another Russian offensive in June in Donbas.

According to the newspaper, in interviews, U.S. officials have expressed confidence that many of these Russian gains on the front can be reversed once Ukraine begins to receive new weapons in full. This is likely to happen in July, according to the NYT.

The NYT emphasizes that Russia's current advantages on the battlefield are "ephemeral," and the war "could look very different 18 months from now than it did 18 months ago."

What is the "Korean" scenario?

It arose as a result of the war between North and South Korea, which lasted from 1950 to 1953. Back then, the USSR supported North Korea, and the United States helped South Korea.

The war between the two countries ended with an armistice in July 1953, which resulted in the creation of a demilitarized zone. However, formally, the two countries are still at war, as no official peace treaty has been signed between them.

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