90% of generation destroyed: Ukraine will lack half of its electricity in winter – NYT

Ukrainians are being urged to prepare for winter with large-scale power outages as 90% of generating capacity has been destroyed. The daily deficit may reach 50% (currently it is 10%), and the repair of the power system will take years, not months.

The New York Times writes about this. The baseline scenario envisages 12 hours without electricity, making this winter one of the most difficult for Ukrainians.

Ildar Saliiev, the head of DTEK, one of the country's largest private electricity companies, said that Russian attacks have led to the loss of 90% of the generating capacity of thermal power plants across the country. "Due to the scale of the destruction, repairs will take years, not months," Mr. Saliiev said.

Electricity shortages in Ukraine will persist until 2026, with an average deficit of about 10% in 2024. The main reasons include damage to the energy infrastructure during the attacks and underdeveloped infrastructure for electricity imports. This is stated in the Memorandum with the IMF (International Monetary Fund).

According to the publication, Ukrainian officials are actively calling on international allies to speed up the delivery of air defense systems that could limit further damage and save lives. Even in the best-case scenario, when there is no further serious damage to the grid, Ukrainians should prepare for large-scale power outages.

Serhii Kovalenko, CEO of Yasno, confirmed that with winter approaching, daily power system shortages seem inevitable. "If the critical infrastructure is repaired and then the remaining supplies are distributed, consumers may face a 50 percent deficit. Therefore, the basic forecast is 12 hours without electricity," he said.

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