The strike on Toropets caused hysteria among Z-bloggers: ISW assessed the effect of further attacks on Russian logistics facilities

On September 18, Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone attack on a Russian missile and ammunition depot near Toropets in the Tver region. After the initial strike, repeated detonations began at the military facility, causing significant damage and loss of weapons.

In addition, this caused hysteria among Russian propagandists, who immediately began to criticize the military command and look for the culprit. Analysts of the Institute for War Studies provided details, assessing the effect of further Ukrainian strikes on logistics facilities in Russia.

Reaction of Z-bloggers

According to sources in the Ukrainian intelligence services, on Wednesday, drone operators from the Security Service, the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR), and the Special Operations Forces (SSO) of Ukraine struck the facility of the 107th Arsenal of the Main Directorate of the Russian Defense Ministry, based near Toropets.

The Russians were storing Iskander missiles, Tochka-U ballistic missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, and artillery ammunition. After the strike, there were significant secondary detonations.

The head of Ukraine's Center for Combating Disinformation, Andrii Kovalenko, said that Russian troops could have stored ammunition for Grad multiple launch rocket systems, S-300 and S-400 missiles, and North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles at the base.

Geolocation imagery released on September 18 showed several large smoke plumes over the facility near Toropets, and satellite imagery showed extensive damage to a building in the southern part, although most of the facility is hidden by smoke.

Russian authorities claimed that it was the wreckage of a downed Ukrainian UAV that hit the facility and triggered secondary detonations. They temporarily evacuated the area in the "cotton wool" zone. However, Russian pro-war bloggers began to criticize officials for the poor construction of the facility and the military for possible mishandling of missiles and ammunition. Z-bloggers accused the detained former Deputy Minister of Defense, Army General Dmitry Bulgakov, of participating in corrupt practices that "led to the poor quality of construction at the facility."

The effect of the Ukrainian strike

According to experts, the continuation of such Ukrainian strikes on enemy logistics facilities in Russia will create wider operational pressure on the Russian military, going beyond the individual destruction of ammunition stocks and logistics facilities. After all, such attacks undermine Russia's ability to launch long-range missile strikes against Ukraine.

The ISW recalled how Ukrainian forces conducted a series of HIMARS strikes on Russian ammunition depots at various locations in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine in the summer of 2022, which prompted the Russian Armed Forces to disperse ammunition depots and worsened the efficiency of logistics at the time.

"Repeated strikes on ammunition depots in Russia that cause a similar level of damage as the Toropets strike could lead to a similar decision by the Russian military command to reorganize and disperse support and logistics systems in Russia to mitigate the consequences," the analysts said.

They suggested that the Russian army has not yet eliminated vulnerabilities at many of its logistics facilities due to the safe haven created by restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons. Although the Toropets facility is not within range of Western systems launched from Ukraine.

The removal of restrictions on the use of Western systems and the development of Ukraine's own long-range strike capabilities, ISW says, could allow Ukrainian forces to more effectively exploit such Russian vulnerabilities. In July 2024, Ukrainian forces struck another Russian ammunition depot near Serhiivka in the Voronezh region of Russia, and ongoing strikes on ammunition and missile storage facilities could also destroy an important part of the enemy's material stockpile.

"Ukrainian strikes on targets in Russia could affect offensive operations across the entire theater of operations in Ukraine if the Ukrainian forces have the material means, capabilities, and permission to conduct such a large-scale strike campaign," the experts concluded.

As reported by OBOZ.UA, weak earthquakes occurred in Toropets, Tver region of the Russian Federation, after an attack on a large ammunition depot on the night of September 18. At the same time, Russians were enraged by the lies of officials, in particular, the statement of local authorities about the "fall of debris" and the work of air defense.

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