"We will face an unprecedented situation": scientists warn of extreme heat in 2024

The year 2024, according to forecasts, will easily overtake its predecessor as the hottest year on record. The El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean is expected to reach its full strength amid warming caused by greenhouse gases.

This is reported by NewScientist, citing scientists. Earlier, scientists announced that 2023 set record temperatures known since the pre-industrial period.

Scientists believe that the elements that conspired to make 2023 so unusually warm are likely to push the numbers even further in 2024.

"We've never had such a strong El Niño in the context of global warming. We are truly facing an unprecedented situation," said Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office.

The average global temperature in 2023 was about 1.4°C higher than the pre-industrial average measured between 1850 and 1900. This beat the previous record of 2016 by more than 0.1°C.

"That's a big jump, equivalent to five years of global warming," Scaife explained.

Scientists suggest that as early as 2024, the average annual temperature increase could exceed 1.5°C. There are suggestions that this already happened in 2023, but the consensus among scientists is that such assumptions are wrong, even though humanity was very close.

The most important factor that has influenced the temperature rise is global warming, caused by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases that humanity emits into the atmosphere. This factor alone accounted for approximately 1.28°C of the temperature increase in 2023.

Another factor that contributed to the record highs was the shift to warmer El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean after a colder La Niña pattern persisted for three years.

Scientists also know that historically, El Niño has had a greater impact on warming in the year after its first appearance as the anomaly intensifies in December and January.

"Typically, El Niño is synonymous with extreme events around the world," says Omar Baddour of the World Meteorological Organization.

Scaife also explains that unusually high temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean and a volcanic eruption in 2022 that released water vapor into the upper atmosphere had a separate impact on the heat level in 2023. The same factors could still affect the heat in the new year.

"2024 will be an extreme year," Scaife says.

For her part, Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Center for Climate Research in the United States also predicts the continuation of temperature records. According to her, in 2024, we should expect "a continuation of strange phenomena, surprises and records that will be broken by a large margin".

Earlier, OBOZ.UA told you that the greenhouse effect can turn the Earth into a hellish planet.

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