There are three factors: Chernyk explains why Russia staged nuclear weapons training

The demonstration training involving tactical nuclear weapons announced by Russia is most likely a bluff, although the Russian leadership's ability to do crazy things cannot be completely ruled out. This bluff is caused by several factors that are extremely irritating to the Kremlin, including the imminent arrival of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine, the peace summit in Switzerland, and so on.

The main purpose of Moscow's latest nuclear weapons rattling is to intimidate the West. This opinion was expressed by military expert Petro Chernyk in a commentary to OBOZ.UA.

He emphasized that to conduct exercises with a real nuclear explosion, special conditions must be provided, and this is not so easy to do.

"It is necessary to understand what the use of tactical nuclear weapons during the exercise is. A nuclear explosion must occur, only then it is considered to have occurred as prescribed by military science. And a nuclear explosion can only take place on specially equipped test sites, in the Soviet Union it was either Kamchatka or the nuclear test site in Kazakhstan – Semipalata or the Orenburg region. It is very difficult for me to imagine how they can detonate any nuclear warhead in the southern military district, where there are no special test sites for this type of nuclear weapon," the expert noted.

Chernyk added that the lack of proper conditions for real tests makes him almost certain that Moscow is bluffing. However, he does not rule out a certain percentage of the probability that the Kremlin will make crazy decisions.

"At the moment, everything looks like a bluff. Can you expect anything from the crazy? I cannot refute this... Should we take this seriously? Of course, we cannot ignore it. Will a nuclear explosion happen right now during these exercises? Rather no than yes," he emphasized.

The expert also listed the reasons that, in his opinion, made the Kremlin nervous and bluff.

"Why is it being done now? First, the F-16s are about to start working. They should radically change the battlefield, and they can. Secondly, there are talks about allowing Ukrainians to hit deep into Russian territory with ATACMS missiles, which is unacceptable to them. Thirdly, the Peace Summit begins in June, and Putin wants to show the countries of the Global South – and there will be a lot of them – that he can do something, that he can achieve some results," Chernyk believes.

In his opinion, the Kremlin's No. 1 task is to intimidate the West so that Ukraine's partners "do not allow their weapons to be used on the territory of the Russian Federation." However, there is no 100% guarantee that blackmail will work or vice versa.

"They waved this nuclear baton the same way when the decision on the F-16 was made. They didn't succeed, but the decision was made, and the F-16s are about to arrive. Look, there is a point of absolute analysis, that's what it's called. When you don't know, you just don't know how many variables are absolute, nuclear war is an absolute change, and it's impossible to understand whether it will cross this line or not. No one on planet Earth knows where the level of bluffing is and where the level of reality is," Chernyk summarized.

Earlier, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War began to explain what is behind Russia's nuclear weapons rattling. On May 21, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the start of the first stage of tactical exercises involving nuclear weapons. It is also planned to conduct exercises with Iskander ballistic missiles and Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles.

The Kremlin resorts to nuclear blackmail every time before important political discussions in the West to influence decision-makers. At the same time, the restrictive policies of Europe and the United States are seriously undermining Ukraine's ability to defend itself against the current Russian offensive in the northern Kharkiv region, according to analysts who consider this a serious mistake by the West.

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