ISW: Kremlin wants to push Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Kursk region by mid-October and create a "buffer zone" in Ukraine's border

The Russian authorities have set a task for the Russian Armed Forces to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region by mid-October 2024. And by the end of October, they are supposed to create a "buffer zone" in Ukraine's border areas along the international border in the northeast.

However, the Russian military is unlikely to fulfill these obligations in such a short time. This opinion was expressed by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a report on September 19.

The day before, a Ukrainian news agency cited unspecified sources as saying that Russian troops had concentrated 37,000 personnel in the Kursk region, ordering them to push the Ukrainian army out of the region by mid-October.

The Kremlin allegedly wanted to assemble a grouping of troops in Kursk that would have a fivefold advantage over Ukrainian forces before launching a "counteroffensive," but failed to do so before it began on September 10.

The Russian army has launched counterattacks on the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region but has not yet engaged in large-scale combat operations that would indicate a concerted operation aimed at completely driving the Ukrainian army out of Russian territory.

Military experts emphasize that ongoing Russian counteroffensive operations in the Kursk region will require the Russian Armed Forces to redeploy additional units from Ukrainian directions and/or send newly formed forces from Russia to the area instead of the front in Ukraine.

"Ukrainian troops have not established control over all areas along the entire Kursk region, but they have undoubtedly prepared positions in some areas that will challenge any concerted Russian counteroffensive," ISW stated.

The same unspecified sources of the Ukrainian news agency also stated that the Kremlin had instructed the Russian army to create a "buffer zone" in "the regions of Ukraine bordering Russia" by October 30. This is likely to be an order to move into Ukrainian territory along the international border to push Ukrainian army firepower further away from Russian territory.

The occupiers sought to create such a "buffer zone" in the north of Kharkiv region when they launched their offensive in the area on May 10, 2024. However, since then, they have advanced only about 10 km deep into the region. The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region, on the other hand, disrupted planned Russian offensives beyond northern Kharkiv region near the border, which were likely aimed at expanding the combat zone in northeastern Ukraine and further entrenching and stretching the Defense Forces along a longer front.

According to analysts, it is clear that a Russian counteroffensive to drive the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Kursk region, followed immediately by an invasion of Ukraine's border regions that resembles Russia's offensive in northern Kharkiv region, would be a large-scale operational effort that would require the Kremlin to commit significant manpower and material resources.

"The Russian military command has demonstrated a desire to protect the priority offensive in the Pokrovske direction from operational pressure caused by the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. However, a Russian counteroffensive, followed immediately by an offensive along the border, will surely create operational requirements that will affect Russia's already weakened ability to send more manpower and material to Pokrovsk," ISW believes.

As reported by OBOZ.UA, during the Armed Forces operation in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, about 40 thousand Russian military were diverted to this area. It is also known that the aggressor is moving equipment of the 810th Separate Mechanized Brigade, which is based in the temporarily occupied Crimea, to Kursk region.

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