ISF: Defense Forces cross the Dnipro River in Kherson region; the enemy's position south of Bakhmut deteriorated
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their counteroffensive in the Bakhmut direction. The village of Andriivka was liberated. Ukrainian soldiers also succeeded in the area of Klishchiivka, which worsened the situation of the occupation forces in the area of Bakhmut.
The defenders are also crossing the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. The occupiers probably would not have enough manpower in this area to hold back the Ukrainians if they launched a serious offensive. This is stated in a new analytical material of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Citing statements by the Ukrainian General Staff and other officials, ISW analysts stated that Ukrainian soldiers liberated Andriivka on September 14, 10 km from Bakhmut. They also achieved "unspecified partial success" in the area of Klishchiiivka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut) the next day on September 15.
At the same time, the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, whose soldiers drove the occupiers out of Andriivka, announced the complete defeat of the units of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces that were there after the settlement was surrounded.
"Units of the 72nd Brigade had previously suffered heavy losses during localized Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area in May 2023 and were likely completely degraded," the ISW article says.
The fighting in the Bakhmut sector continues. At the same time, according to the 3rd Brigade, the liberation of Andriivka opened up opportunities for a breakthrough on the southern flank of Bakhmut.
At the same time, the events around Andriivka caused chaos among Russian "military leaders". According to ISW, many Russian sources either completely denied the liberation of the village by the Ukrainian Armed Forces or consoled themselves and their audiences by saying that the control of the village was a tactically insignificant achievement for Ukraine and that Russia controlled the heights east of the village.
Nevertheless, some Russian "military commanders" could not hide their anxiety after the news from Andriivka.
"Some Russian bloggers acknowledged that the tactical situation of Russian troops south of Bakhmut is deteriorating and expressed concern that Ukrainian forces could threaten the Russian group in Bakhmut," ISW writes.
There is no unity among Russian "military commanders" regarding the situation in Klishchiivka. While most of them claim that the settlement is controlled by Russian troops, one of the "military commanders" said that Ukrainian forces pushed the occupiers out of Klishchiivka and are trying to gain a foothold in the settlement.
Another military blogger also claimed that Ukrainian soldiers tried to enter Bakhmut itself from the southwest. According to him, it was unsuccessful.
"Russian troops counterattacked in the area of Bakhmut, but did not achieve any confirmed success on September 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops continue unsuccessful attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses in the area of Bohdanivka (7 km northwest of Bakhmut) and are trying to regain positions near Yahidne (2 km north of Bakhmut).
Ukraine's General Staff also reported that Ukrainian troops continue offensive actions in the west of Zaporizhzhia region and inflict significant losses on Russian manpower and equipment in the area of Verbove (18 km southeast of Orikhiv).
The Kherson region is no less of a concern for the Russians than the Bakhmut area. Some Russian "military commanders" complained that the Ukrainian military crossed the Dnipro on September 14 and 15. They are also concerned about the increased activity of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the islands in the Dnipro Delta near the Antonivskyi Bridge: Ukrainian soldiers, the Russian "military officers" are indignant, are preparing positions for a future offensive in the occupied part of Kherson region.
ISW analysts also state that there are real reasons to be concerned. The occupiers on the left bank have a shortage of manpower and a "shell famine".
"Russian forces probably do not have the manpower necessary to defend against a significant attack by the Ukrainian army in this area of the front, given that the Russian command has moved several units from the Kherson region to the Zaporizhzhia region. One Russian military blogger acknowledged that Russian forces lack the capabilities to conduct significant river crossing operations of their own in the area, in part due to a lack of shells for artillery training," the analysts noted.
Earlier, ISW analysts stated that the occupiers have big problems. They are eloquently evidenced by the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strike on the Triumph Air Defense system near Yevpatoria. This is not the first Russian Air Defense system destroyed in Crimea, which confirms that there are systematic tactical failures in Air Defense on the peninsula.