Scientists predict how many people will live to 100: the figures are disappointing

Researchers have discovered that humanity is approaching the limit of longevity. Back in the 1990s, scientists predicted that most children born today would reach their centenary. However, the chances of this happening are decreasing as life expectancy increases slow down.

According to the data analysis, girls born in recent years have only a 5.3 percent chance of living to be a hundred years old. Boys have even lower chances - only 1.8 percent will be able to celebrate their 100th birthday, MailOnline writes, citing findings in the journal Nature Aging.

A team from the University of Illinois at Chicago studied mortality data from regions around the world, including Hong Kong, Australia, France, and Spain. They showed that life expectancy rose globally from 48 years in 1900 to 67 years in 1950 and again to 76 years at the turn of the millennium.

However, by 2021, it had only risen to 77 years of life. And according to preliminary forecasts, this figure should have already reached 83 years.

Separate data provided by the Office for National Statistics show that life expectancy in the UK has increased quite a bit since 1841: to 66.1 years for men and 70.6 years for women by 1950, and to 75.6 years for men and 80.4 years for women by 2000.

However, the new figures show that a child born in 2022 can expect to live to 78.9 years if they are male and 82.8 if they are female, which is a clear slowdown.

According to the study participants, there is no evidence to date that "radical life extension" has occurred or will occur in the 21st century. They argue that the focus should now be on increasing the number of years lived in good health.

"Most people alive today at older ages are living on time that was manufactured by medicine. But these medical Band-Aids are producing fewer years of life even though they're occurring at an accelerated pace, implying that the period of rapid increases in life expectancy is now documented to be over. We should now shift our focus to efforts that slow aging and extend healthspan," says lead author Professor Stuart Olshansky.

"Healthspan is a relatively new metric that measures the number of years a person is healthy, not just alive," he added.

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