"The Kremlin will not respect any new agreement": ISW warns how the Russian army can use the ceasefire

The military and political leadership of the aggressor country Russia is still not interested in meaningful negotiations to end the war. The Kremlin intends to use the truce to prepare for future offensive operations in Ukraine.

At the same time, the Russian Federation regularly simulates interest in meaningful negotiations as part of a long-standing information operation aimed at persuading the West to make concessions on Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. This is stated in the analysis of the Institute for War Studies.

Experts note that anonymous statements about Russia's alleged readiness for a ceasefire contrast sharply with Russia's official public rhetoric and actions. The ISW emphasized that dictator Vladimir Putin has significantly stepped up his expansionist rhetoric towards Ukraine since December 2023 and has increasingly indicated that Russia intends to seize new territories in Ukraine.

At the same time, Russian sources who spoke to Western media offered contradictory characterizations of Putin's position in the negotiations. Reuters reported that Putin is seeking to seize as much territory as possible to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate, but another Russian source estimated that Putin does not want to negotiate with Zelenskyy at all.

Putin also reportedly believes that the West will not provide Ukraine with enough weapons, but understands that any "dramatic" Russian success will require another nationwide mobilization. Delays in Western security assistance have severely limited Ukrainian defense capabilities in recent months, and if Putin believes there are limits to Western support for Ukraine, he logically concludes that such limits may reappear in the medium term and allow Russian forces with their current capabilities to make gains without a larger mobilization.

Analysts warn that the ceasefire does not prevent Russia from resuming its offensive campaign to destroy Ukrainian statehood. The Kremlin will use any ceasefire to prepare for future offensive operations in Ukraine.

As a reminder, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, speaking in Kyiv, told reporters that he did not believe Putin was interested in serious negotiations.

Earlier it was reported that a summit on peace in Ukraine will be held in Switzerland in June. Russia has not been invited to the conference, unlike a number of neutral countries.

Only verified information is available on our Telegram channel OBOZ.UA and Viber. Do not fall for fakes!