Russia has not abandoned its goals in Ukraine: ISW explains the threat of a temporary ceasefire

There are now more and more reports that Western officials are becoming more "open" to a possible dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow to end the war. However, the aggressor country, Russia, is sticking to its maximalist goals in Ukraine and is not interested in negotiations in good faith.

The Kremlin is only seeking a temporary cessation of hostilities to rebuild its army and continue its aggression with even greater force. This was pointed out by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The analysts drew attention to a Politico article that quoted an unnamed representative of the US presidential administration and an EU diplomat. These sources said that Washington and European officials are shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine's complete victory over Russia to improving Kyiv's position in the anticipated possible negotiations with Moscow to end the war.

The newspaper noted that such a dialogue would likely force Ukraine to cede territory to Russia. Against this backdrop, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on December 27 that the West intends to freeze the war in Ukraine and then present it as a victory. The Kremlin henchman rhetorically asked what victories the United States had achieved in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq after "trying to do the same thing."

According to analysts, his references suggest that Lavrov views the Western discussion of freezing the war and preparing for possible Ukrainian negotiations with Russia as "the West's willingness to recognize Ukraine's defeat."

The Russian minister's statement is also consistent with recent statements by other Russian officials that the Kremlin is "not interested in freezing the war" or "holding honest negotiations" and will continue to build on its expansionist territorial goals and efforts to "demilitarize" Ukraine.

"The temporary ceasefire is likely to give the Russian military time to prepare for a new aggression against Ukraine. Ultimately, Russia will still pursue the same maximalist goals for this new aggression," the ISW concluded.

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