Three stages await Ukraine: what will happen to the economy and what can be expected

Oleksandr LytvynNews
What will happen to the economy
What will happen to the economy

Ukraine's economy will undergo three stages of renewal. The first one has already started now and will continue until 2025. However, we should expect significant growth from 2031.

About it is stated in the material OBOZ.UA. The Ukrainian economy must recover, and at a very fast pace. We should not count on constant injections, budget coverage at the expense of international partners for many years. Already now, the US and the EU have problems with agreeing on the allocation of aid to Ukraine. If we talk about the post-war period, it will be even more difficult to get aid.

The economy has to recover in three stages. And the first one has already started and will continue until 2025. This is the period of financing acute socio-economic problems. From 2026 to 2030, the stage of "gradual development" is expected, which is associated with an increase in investment inflows, development of production and increase in labor productivity . "Rapid development" is possible in 2031-2032, this period is associated with the full integration of Ukraine into the EU.

According to Kyrylo Kryvolap, head of the Center for Economic Recovery, annually GDP should grow at a rate of 7% per year at least. This is the growth that will make it possible to cover high budget expenditures, to balance expenditures and revenues over time and to smoothly exit the crisis situation.

At the same time, about 500 billion dollars will have to be spent on reconstruction. "We have studied the experience of other countries to understand what international support can be obtained. Financing at the level of 60% of GDP for 2.5 years seems realistic," notes Kryvolap.

Therefore, we should not expect a significant reduction in spending after the war. The good news is that economic growth to balance post-war spending is likely. True, the low base for growth should be taken into account. Ukraine should export processed, finished products rather than raw materials. According to CES calculations, the country will be short of about 3.5 million workers.

As OBOZREVATEL previously wrote, the EU said that Russia cannot even be compared to Italy or China in terms of GDP. Their economies account for only 1% of global GDP.

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